PolyBridge / Two Americas

2028 Race to the White House

What this shows

Market-implied 2028 Democratic and Republican nomination probabilities and each candidate's chance of winning the presidency if nominated.

Two Americas
2028 Race to the White House

Last updated

2028 Race to the White House

CandidateProbability of winning nominationNom.Probability of winning presidential election,
given successful nomination
Pres. if nom.
Democratic field
Gavin NewsomNewsom18%61%
Jon OssoffOssoff16%63%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAOC15%61%
Kamala HarrisHarris8%58%
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg5%56%
Republican field
JD VanceVance43%43%
Marco RubioRubio24%57%

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