Intelligence from
Prediction Markets
The Gold Standard
Prediction market data is the gold standard because it represents a very clear and precise question on a future outcome.
Unlike other data sources, prediction markets provide capital-backed signals where participants have real financial stakes in the accuracy of their predictions.
When capital is at stake, truth emerges from speculation.
This creates a uniquely reliable data source for understanding future probabilities.
Discrete, Sparse Samples
Prediction markets are discrete islands of high-fidelity data. They answer "Will X happen?" but stay silent on the connections between events.
The markets provide precise probabilities for specific questions, but leave vast gaps in our understanding of how events relate to each other.
The Connective Tissue
Polybridge builds the connective tissue between discrete markets.
By learning how Market A correlates with Market B, we mathematically infer the state of the empty space between them. This transforms sparse data points into a continuous probability surface.
Decoding the Implicit
Polybridge applies probabilistic logic to decode the market's latent structure.
We move beyond the raw price to find the causal dependencies that experts are using to allocate capital. The system learns how Regulation impacts Innovation, or how Energy prices constrain Compute. This enables continuous interpolation for questions where no direct market exists.
From Discrete Prices to a World Model.
This transforms a list of tickers into a computable graph of the world—allowing us to answer questions that lie between the markets. The system enables structured logic questions of the form: a) No direct market — continuous interpolation, b) Structured logic questions: Conditionals, And, Or, If A vs If B.
Examples
The Architecture
Math, not Hallucination.
The Computable Future
We are moving from reading news to querying probabilities.
The continuous knowledge space exists.