Two Americas
Last updated --
PolyBridge uses prices from Kalshi and Polymarket to estimate a candidate's chance of winning their party's nomination and their chance of winning the presidency if nominated.
For each candidate, PolyBridge uses nomination markets and presidential election markets from both Kalshi and Polymarket.
A candidate appears only when the required markets are available and the model gives them at least a 5% chance of winning the nomination.
A row is not shown when either source lists a higher price for winning the presidency than for winning the nomination.
Nomination probability is the estimated chance that a candidate wins their party's nomination.
Electability is the estimated chance that they win the presidency if nominated.
P(wins presidency)
= P(wins nomination) x P(wins presidency | nomination)The model uses nomination and election prices together. It does not simply divide one by the other.
A candidate's overall chance of winning the presidency cannot be higher than their chance of winning the nomination.
Independent candidates, differences in contract rules, and prices recorded at different times can affect the estimate.
A statistical model combines prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. It allows for consistent differences between the two sources and reports a range covering the middle 90% of the model's probability estimates.
When prices are very low, a small change can have a large effect, so the model reports more uncertainty.
When evidence for one candidate is limited, the model also uses information from other candidates in the same party.
Volume and liquidity are kept for reference, but they do not give either source more influence.
Question history
--
Candidate field
--
Source markets
--