Market stress brief

This example shows how to monitor whether equity-market stress could rise over the next quarter.

What this shows

Market stress means conditions where volatility rises, stocks sell off, and investors look for safer assets. This workflow uses VIX above 30 over the next quarter as the headline stress signal, then checks oil, SPX, gold, and Hormuz as possible drivers.

Prompt

Agent prompt

Use PolyBridge Forecast to create a market stress brief.

Headline question:
Will the VIX close above 30 at any point in the next 90 days?

Driver questions:

1. Will crude oil settle above $90 at any point in the next 90 days?
2. Will SPX draw down more than 10% at any point in the next 90 days?
3. Will gold reach $5,000 at any point in the next 90 days?
4. Will the Strait of Hormuz be open to regular traffic at the end of the next 90 days?

Return:

1. headline market-stress probability
2. driver table with probabilities
3. short interpretation
4. source markets used

Keep the output concise.

Why this is useful

A single VIX forecast can say whether stress looks likely, but it does not explain why. This brief adds the likely drivers, so an agent can report the headline risk, the reasons behind it, and the source markets that support the answer.