Research
Essays, reports, notes, and cookbooks.
15 Entries · 2026
Causal reasoning from time-series data
PolyBridge builds probabilistic causal world models for economics, geopolitics, energy, and cyber. We are excited about LLMs' potential in these fields and tested how well they could estimate causal effects from time-series data.
Report
How likely is stagflation? A joint picture
Stagflation is important because low growth hits equities, and inflation and policy response hits bonds. Both legs moving together kills diversification, upping portfolio risk.
Report
TimesFM-3 on US macro: a first look
We compared PolyBridge and TimesFM-3 forecasts across seven US macroeconomic indicators and scored their accuracy.
Report
The Spike
A closer look at the surge in severe vulnerability disclosures
Report
Cape Verde went viral. Our model forecasts the tourism effect.
Cape Verde's World Cup run produced a measurable attention shock. PolyBridge forecasts what it means for hotel guests over the following 18 months.
Report
An evidence check for agentic finance
An agent asks PolyBridge how likely the events behind a trading idea are. Then it previews a simulated trade, holds, or declines.
Developer guide
The causal market cost of a data breach
We applied synthetic controls to more than 750 disclosed breaches and 13 breach events at listed companies.
Report
The World Cup's Other Scoreboard
PolyBridge forecasts where the World Cup lands for a country’s economy after the final whistle
Report
Build a long-short portfolio with forward-dated market data
PolyBridge queries four price thresholds per asset, reconstructs market-implied distributions, sizes via half-Kelly, and outputs Hyperliquid 1x perp order instructions.
Developer guide
Forecast VIX with forward-dated market data
A saved VIX stress-monitor snapshot, plus a reusable next-90-day Forecast workflow for equity-market stress.
Developer guide
World Models based on Information Markets vs Physical World Models
Most world models are built to track the physical world. Ours is built from forward-dated market data, reflecting participants’ expectations of what happens next.
Essay
Why we built PolyBridge as a world model
The questions decision-makers have rarely match the questions markets ask. The world model is the bridge: an explicit map of named concepts and causal connections, continuously inferred from market-implied signal.
Essay
The price is the publication. So who gets to write it?
A soldier, a candidate, and a YouTuber's cousin trade on privileged information in three markets. Each profits from information they shouldn't have. None fits the same regulatory frame.
Essay
Performance without legibility is a liability
Martin Lueck argues that machine learning can find relationships hidden to the naked eye, but only if you can still articulate what the model is finding.
Essay
The Economic World Model: scaling trust in the Agentic Economy
How PolyBridge builds the truth substrate for the Agentic Economy, shifting verification from internal linguistic coherence to external economic causality.