Each figure is the median forecast; the range is the 90% credible interval. Q3 2026 is calibrated on comparable runs, Q4 2026 is directional, and 2027 is a literature-based scenario.
Q3, the summer quarter, already runs near full occupancy at 93.0%, so the additional attention has limited room to convert into extra guests. The same-quarter forecast is close to no change.
Winter has more available capacity. Q4 2025 recorded about 400,000 guests at lower occupancy than summer, and the model forecasts a median increase of about 1.4% there, or about 6,000 guests. The tourism-economics literature finds that effects like this tend to peak roughly two years after the event; the model's 2027 scenario is a median increase of about 2.6%, or about 12,000 guests.
We start from official INE history, measure the attention shock against a clean pre-tournament baseline, calibrate the summer conversion on comparable past runs, and project the winter and 2027 horizons. Each figure is the median of a Monte Carlo rollout, and the 90% interval around it shows forecast uncertainty.
How large was the attention?
During the run, Cape Verde's Wikipedia page averaged about 29x its normal daily traffic in the model window. Using the full opener-to-elimination window used for the analog panel, the attention shock is 32.4x. Either way, it is the largest shock in our panel of comparable surprise runs.
Curiosity, searches, and bookings all rose. Whether that converts into arrivals depends on timing, and on whether there is available capacity.
What happened after four comparable runs
For each comparable surprise run, we measured the same country-page attention shock and paired it with the arrivals that official statistics offices reported for the following quarter.
Three of the four runs occurred in a busy summer, and all three moved same-quarter arrivals by close to nothing. Croatia is the clearest case: it had the largest attention shock in the comparison group and reached the World Cup final, yet its peak-season arrivals slowed because summer was already booked.
Morocco is the exception, and its run fell in the off-season, when rooms were available. Cape Verde's Q3 tourism season runs at 93.0% occupancy, which matches the summer cases, so the model forecasts little same-quarter effect. Its larger quarter is winter: Q4 2025 recorded about 400,000 guests at lower occupancy, because more beds are open.
How PolyBridge reads the run
The forecast comes from a causal model: the run drives attention and travel intent, and the season's available capacity decides how much of it converts into hotel guests.
The model separates the causal flow. The attention-to-guests conversion is the one link not present in Cape Verde's own data; it is calibrated on four comparable runs: Iceland, Croatia, Morocco, and Georgia.
In detail: we build a normal quarter from official INE history, measure the attention shock against a clean pre-tournament baseline, and draw thousands of outcomes through the model. Gholipour et al. 2020 and Hoepken et al. 2019 support the mechanism and the two-year lag. The summer horizon is calibrated; the winter horizon is directional; 2027 is a scenario. The 90% interval on each figure shows how much to rely on it.
What to watch. Almost every visitor flies in, so Cape Verde's airport-passenger releases should register any uptick before the hotel data does; the autumn and winter hotel figures follow. The larger test is 2027. A separate benefit falls outside these statistics: a month of global attention is an awareness gain that a small destination would not otherwise be able to buy.